GREEN CINE Already a member? login
 Your cart
Help
Advanced Search
- Genres
+ Action
+ Adult
+ Adventure
+ Animation
+ Anime
+ Classics
+ Comedies
+ Comic Books
+ Crime
  Criterion Collection
+ Cult
+ Documentary
+ Drama
+ Erotica
+ Espionage
  Experimental/Avant-Garde
+ Fantasy
+ Film Noir
+ Foreign
+ Gay & Lesbian
  HD (High Def)
+ Horror
+ Independent
+ Kids
+ Martial Arts
+ Music
+ Musicals
  Pre-Code
+ Quest
+ Science Fiction
  Serials
+ Silent
+ Sports
+ Suspense/Thriller
  Sword & Sandal
+ Television
+ War
+ Westerns


Public Discussions

topics
GreenCine General
Feedback
Have suggestions, criticism or praise for the GreenCine community? Post them here. Please maintain a sense of decorum here.
1063

Is there a Statistician in the House?
Topic by: FGaipa
Posted: July 24, 2007 - 1:30 PM PDT
Last Reply: July 27, 2007 - 1:46 PM PDT

author topic: Is there a Statistician in the House?
FGaipa
post #1  on July 24, 2007 - 1:30 PM PDT  
In theory a longer shipping time shouldn't affect frequency. After an initial transitional delay, posting back a disk per day would result in a new disk received per day.

Not only is that not happening. Nothing remotely like it is happening. In approaching two weeks, I've watched 4 GCs and returned each the day after receipt. My per disk cost has jumped from roughly 87 cents to $2.50 or more per disk. In 2006 I turned around 349 GCs. 349 at the current pace would cost $872.50, while at the old pace they cost a little more than a third of that.

Is there (why this is a seperate thread) a statistical reason for a travel time doubled or tripled to result in service disruption in excess of the transitional blip I hoped for above?

Instinct tells me the delay is at the new GC handling center, perhaps fixable. But I've read enough Stanislaw Lem to wonder if equal service from that remove might be statistically unlikely.

fg

MrEricSir
post #2  on July 24, 2007 - 1:45 PM PDT  
> In theory a longer shipping time shouldn't affect frequency.

How do you figure that?
jnissel
post #3  on July 24, 2007 - 2:39 PM PDT  
> On July 24, 2007 - 1:30 PM PDT FGaipa wrote:
> ---------------------------------
> In theory a longer shipping time shouldn't affect frequency. After an initial transitional delay, posting back a disk per day would result in a new disk received per day.
>
>
> fg
>
>
> ---------------------------------

It does affect frequency. Let's use a one disc at a time membership for simplicity. Please see the chars below.

Chart for one day shipping (two week period);

RECEIVE - - SEND - - GC GET - GC SEND
Mon - - - - Mon - - - - Tue - - - - Tue
Wed - - - - Wed - - - Thu - - - - - Thu
Fri - - - - - - Fri - - - - Sat - - - - - Sat (End 1st week)

Mon - - - - Mon - - - - Tue - - - - Tue
Wed - - - - Wed - - - Thu - - - - - Thu
Fri - - - - - - Fri - - - - Sat - - - - - Sat (End 2nd week)


Chart for two day shipping (two week period);
RECEIVE - - SEND - - GC GET - GC SEND
Mon - - - - - Mon - - - - Wed - - Wed
Fri - - - - - Fri (End 1st week)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Mon - - Mon
Wed - - - - - Wed - - - - Fri - - - Fri (End 2nd week)

woozy
post #4  on July 24, 2007 - 6:52 PM PDT  
Course it will effect frequency!

This is my rant about why "no late fee" makes no sense. You have a disk for a period of time that includes. 1) Time in transit to get to you, 2) time you keep it around, and 3) time in transit back, 4) processing (i.e. throttling) time. The longer any of those are then the longer before you get a disk.

(Hence, my "no late fee" rant. Every day I keep my disk is a day I'm not getting a new disk. I'm paying the same amount for keeping a disk a day extra as I'd be paying to have another disk for that day. Hence I *am* paying to keep it an extra day. Hence that *is* a late fee. It's just that the late fee is my choice but then again late fees are always my choice.)

I think what you are thinking is having a high n-out number shouldn't effect your frequency of watching because you'll always have a few out.

I)Say you have a five out plan and you watch one movie a day and shipping is overnight. Then, in general, you'll always have 3 at home and two in the mail.

Weds:
put Movie A that you watched last night in mail.
GF (your DVD by mail company) recieves movie B that you watched Monday night and mailed back yesterday.
GF mails you movie B-prime and you'll get it tommorrow.
You recieve movie C (which GF mailed the day before).
You still have D and E laying about the house.
Watch what you feel of C, D or E.

II)You are on a five out plan and you watch one movie a day and shipping takes two days. Then, in general, you'll always have 1 movie to watch and four in the mail.

Weds:
Movie A: You watched this last, tues, night. You put it in the mail today.
Movie B: You watched this Monday night. You mailed it Tuesday. FG will recieve it tommorrow, Thurs.
Movie C: You watched this Sunday night. You mailed it Mon. FG recieves it today. FG mails you movie C-prime today. You will get it Friday.
Movie D: You watched this Fri. night. (You don't watch movies on Saturdays because you have a life.) You mailed it Sat. morning. FG recieved it yesterday. They sent D-prime yesterday. You will recieve it tommorrow.
Movie E: You watched this Thurs. night. You mailed it Fri. morning. FG recieved it on Monday. They sent E-prime on Mon. You recieve E-prime today. You watch it tonight.

At home: E-prime
In mail: A,B, C-prime, D-prime.

Both I) an II) are the same in frequency. I) is very much what I have with netflix right now. The thing I) is the same frequency as a *3*-out plan which would be cheaper. And although I) and II) are the same frequency II) has few movies at one time.

Basically if we assume shipping (both ways) is m-days, an n-out (m+i)-days plan is equivalent to a (n-i)-out m-days plan. This is because a day that a disk is in mail is equivilent to one less disk.

Ex:

3-out overnight(2-day) is equivalent to 5-out 4-day.

3-out overnight has on a given day (on average) 1 disk at home and two in the mail.
5-out 4-day has (on average) 1 disk at home and four in the mail.
5-out overnight is equivalent to 7-out 4-day in that on average you'll have three disks at home and four in the mail.

Actually to get really nerdy and anal about it consider these factors.

i- numbers of movies you watch per day
j (bigger or equal to i)- number of movies you want to be able to choose i from. (Even though I'm paying more for the 5-out plan than the three out plan I like having movies to choose from, especially when watching TV series of which I like to watch one episode at a time)
k- number of days in shipping (both ways and including throttling)

Then you want an n= j + i*k plan.

Lets say GC does a three day turnaround (Van Nuys to SF = 1 day, SF to Van Nuys = 2). Say you watch two movies a day and don't want to waste any time having them lie around the house. Then i=2, j=2, k=3 so you want to be on the n = 2 + 2*3 = 8 out plan.

Um, less see if this actually works:

Weds
Movie A and B: watched last night. Put in mail today. GC will get them on Fri and will send you A' and B'. You will get A' and B' on Sat.
Movie C and D: you watched them on Monday. You mailed them on Tues. GC will get them on Thurs. They will send C' and D'. You will get them on Fri.
Movie E and F: you watched them on Sunday. You mailed them on Monday. GC gets them today. GC sends E' an F' you will get them tommorrow.
Movie G and H: you watched them on Fri. You mailed them on Saturday. GC recieved them on Tues. GC mailed G' and H' on Tues. You recieve them today and watch them tonight.

*NOW* if you are really trying to calculate comparing GC to Netflix we need also the numbers of day per week they ship. GC 6. NF 5. (As well as number of days per week you watch movies, and days that mail is delivered)

Say for instance you watch movies 7 days a week (you broke up with your dancing partner and now spend you saturdays at home and GC mails 6 days a week, then you want them to ship you 7/6 your daily amount each shipping. You want NF to ship you 7/5 your daily amount each shipping.

d- days a week you watch movies
w- days the company works

Then you want the n= (d/w)*j + i*k out plan.

So suppose you want to watch a movie every night of the week and don't want to have any movies lying about. Then d = 7, j=i=1. Let's assume GC takes about 1 1/2 days to get to you (Half the time it is one and half the time it is two) and two days to get back. Then k = 3.5. w = 6.

So you want the n = (7/6) + 3 1/2 = 4 2/3 = 5 out plan.

With netflix, w = 5. k =2 as it's over night but let's suppose they throttle 20% of the time. So k = 2.2

You want the n = (7/5) + 2 1/5 = 18/5 = 4 out plan.

Sheesh lets double check these:


GC.
Monday: Sign up. GC ships A, B, C, D, E. A, C & E take one day to arrive, B & D take two.
Tuesday: A, C, & E arrive. B & E in transit. Watch A.
Weds: Return A. B & E arrive. B,C,D,E at home. Watch B.
Thurs: Return B. A in transit. C,D & E at home. Watch C.
Friday:Return C. B in transit. A arrives at GC. GC ships A'. A' takes one day. D & E at home. Watch D.
Saturday: Return D. C in transit. B arrives at GC. GC ships B'. B' takes two days. A' arrives. A' & E at home. Watch E.
Sunday: Watch A'.
Monday: Return E and A'. D in transit to GC. C arrives at GC. GC ships C'. C' takes one day. B' is in transit to you. Nothing arrives, you have a day without movies. Bummer.
Tues: E and A' in transit to GC. D arrives at GC. GC ships D'. D' takes two days. B' and C' arrive. Watch B'
Weds. Return B'. E and A' arrive at GC. GC ships E' and A''. E' takes one day and A'' takes two. Nothing arrives.
Watch C'.
Thurs: Return C'. B' is in transit to GC. D' & E' arrive. A'' is in transit to you. watch D'.
Fri: A'' is at your house. B' arrives at GC. GC sends B''. B'' takes one day. C' is in transit to GC. Return D'. E' is at your house. Watch E''
Sat: A'' is at your house. B'' arrives at your house. C' arrives at GC. GC sends C''. C'' takes two days. D' is in transit to GC. Return E''. Watch A''
Sun: Watch B''.
Mon: Return A'' and B''. C'' is in transit to you. D' arrives at GC. D'' (one day) is shipped. E'' in transit. Crap no movies to watch!

Sigh and so on.... 15 days, 12 movies

Now with Netflix:
Mon: sign up with NF 4-out. NF ships A,B,C,D.
Tues: recieve A,B,C, & D. Watch A.
Weds. Return A. Watch B. C & D at home.
Thurs: NF recieves A but decides to throttle you. Return B. Watch C. D at home.
Fri: NF sends A'. Netflix recieves B and send B'. Return C. Watch D.
Sat: A' and B' arrive. C arrives at NF. Return D.
Sun: Watch A'. B' at home. C at NF. D at post office.
Mon: Return A'. Watch B'. NF sends C'. D arrives at NF. NF secd D'.
Tues: A' returns. A'' shipped. Return B'. C' and D' arrive. Watch C'.
Weds: A'' arrives. B' returns but NF decides to throttle you. Return C'. Watch D'.
Thurs: Watch A''. B'' shipped. C' returns. C'' shipped. Return D'.
Fri: Return A''. B'' and C'' arrive. Watch B''. D' returns. D'' shipped.
Sat: A'' returns. Return B''. Watch C''. D'' arrives.
Sun: A'' at NF office. B'' is post office. C'' watched. Watch D''.
Mon: A''' shipped. B'' returns and B''' shipped. Return C'' and D'' Nothing to watch.

Result... 15 days, 12 movies watched. Pretty much the same.

woozy
post #5  on July 24, 2007 - 7:02 PM PDT  
Ooops:


> On July 24, 2007 - 6:52 PM PDT woozy wrote:
> Now with Netflix:
> Mon: sign up with NF 4-out. NF ships A,B,C,D.
> Tues: recieve A,B,C, & D. Watch A.
> Weds. Return A. Watch B. C & D at home.
> Thurs: NF recieves A but decides to throttle you. Return B. Watch C. D at home.
> Fri: NF sends A'. Netflix recieves B and send B'. Return C. Watch D.
> Sat: A' and B' arrive. Watch A'. C arrives at NF. Return D.
> Sun: A' watched. Watch B'. C at NF. D at post office.
> Mon: Return A' and B'. NF sends C'. D arrives at NF. NF send D'. Nothing to watch.
> Tues: A' returns. A'' shipped. B' returns but NF decides to throttle you. C' and D' arrive. Watch C'.
> Weds: A'' arrives. B'' ships. Return C'. Watch D'.
> Thurs: Watch A''. B'' arrives. C' returns. C'' shipped. Return D'.
> Fri: Return A''. Watch B''. C'' arrives. D' returns. D'' shipped.
> Sat: A'' returns. Return B''. Watch C''. D'' arrives.
> Sun: A'' at NF office. B'' is post office. C'' watched. Watch D''.
> Mon: A''' shipped. B'' returns and B''' shipped. Return C'' and D'' Nothing to watch.
>
> Result... 15 days, 12 movies watched. Pretty much the same.
>
>
> ---------------------------------

Cinenaut
post #6  on July 25, 2007 - 8:14 AM PDT  
(Little did FGaipa suspect that there actually was a statistician in the house.)
woozy
post #7  on July 25, 2007 - 12:05 PM PDT  
> On July 25, 2007 - 8:14 AM PDT Cinenaut wrote:
> ---------------------------------
> (Little did FGaipa suspect that there actually was a statistician in the house.)
> ---------------------------------

Not really a statistician; just an obsessive geek with too much time on his hands.

FGaipa
post #8  on July 26, 2007 - 4:57 PM PDT  
> On July 24, 2007 - 1:45 PM PDT MrEricSir wrote:
> ---------------------------------
> > In theory a longer shipping time shouldn't affect frequency.
>
> How do you figure that?
> ---------------------------------

If travel and processing time both were constants, and if every disk returned generated a disk sent...

Assume for simplicity's sake that round-trip travel time (A) and processing (B)combined equal exactly one week. Also for simplicity's sake ignore the Sunday issue.

...then a disk posted back Monday would generate a new disk received the following Monday. Tueday's send would generate a receipt the following Tuesday. Ditto Wednesday. Ditto all the following days. Even if turnaround took a month or a year, no less than if it took overnight, so long as A and B are constant, a disk sent in daily eventually results in a disk received back daily.

Even if A and B vary somewhat, the result shouldn't be the (top of my head not a real calculation) 60 % per cent frequency loss that I and probably other Bay Area based frequent users are seeing. This thing started, what, three weeks ago? And I'm still seeing a turnaround as much as eight days from Oakland.

In my orignal post to this thread, I wondered whether some counter-intuitive statistical likelihood might undermine GCs promises to set things straight.

fg

woozy
post #9  on July 27, 2007 - 1:46 PM PDT  
> On July 26, 2007 - 4:57 PM PDT FGaipa wrote:
> ---------------------------------
> > On July 24, 2007 - 1:45 PM PDT MrEricSir wrote:
> > ---------------------------------
> > > In theory a longer shipping time shouldn't affect frequency.
> >
> > How do you figure that?
> > ---------------------------------
>
> If travel and processing time both were constants, and if every disk returned generated a disk sent...
>
> Assume for simplicity's sake that round-trip travel time (A) and processing (B)combined equal exactly one week. Also for simplicity's sake ignore the Sunday issue.
>
> ...then a disk posted back Monday would generate a new disk received the following Monday. Tueday's send would generate a receipt the following Tuesday. Ditto Wednesday. Ditto all the following days. Even if turnaround took a month or a year, no less than if it took overnight, so long as A and B are constant, a disk sent in daily eventually results in a disk received back daily.
>
Right, but it needs a bump up in the n-out plan.

If there were some magical super efficient DVD plan that would recieve and send a disk in the same day you'd need a 1-out plan to watch a new movie every night. If it took a week then you'd need a 7 out plan. If it took a year, you'd need a 365-out plan.

Let say for simplicity, GC settles down to the very slow (but faster than current) six days. That is you recieve and watch a movie on Monday. Return on Tues. You recieve its replacement monday. Then to watch a movie every day except Sunday, you need to be on the six-out plan.

Let's say for simplicity, NF is incrediably and consistantly fast and the turnaround is two days and let's say they ship on Saturday. Then you can be on the 3-out plan.

Movie 1:Watch Mon, return tues, replaced weds. Watch replacement Thurs
Movie 2:Watch Tues. Watch replacement Fri
Movie 3:Weds and Sat

Netflix doesn't work Sat. and they aren't consistantly that fast.

But if GC's turnaround turns into six days, then GC 6-out = Netflix 4-out = a movie six nights a week.

====
Netflix 4-out (no shipping Sat and 20% throttling):

Monday:watch A.
Tuesday:Return A, watch B.
Weds:A at NF.A' sent.Return B. watch C
Thurs:A' comes. B at Netflix. B' sent. return C. watch D.
Fri: Watch A'. B' comes. C at NF; C' sent. return D.
Sat: Return A'. Watch B', C' comes, D at NF.
=====
Mon: A' at Netflix(throttle).Return B'. Watch C'. D' sent.
Tues:A" sent. B' at Netflix B" sent. Return C'. D' comes and watched.
Weds.A" comes-watch. B" comes. C"sent. return D'.
Thurs: return A". watch B". C" comes. D" sent.
Fri: A''' sent. return B". watch C". D" comes.
Sat: A''' comes. B" at NF. return C". watch D"
=====
Mon: watch A'''.B" at NF (throttle). C''' sent. D" returned.
Tues:return A'''. B''' sent. Watch C'''. D''' sent.

and so on.

about greencine · donations · refer a friend · support · help · genres
contact us · press room · privacy policy · terms · sitemap · affiliates · advertise

Copyright © 2005 GreenCine LLC. All rights reserved.
© 2006 All Media Guide, LLC. Portions of content provided by All Movie Guide®, a trademark of All Media Guide, LLC.