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1063

Can GC complete with netflix and someday itunes? Yes, with some changes.
Topic by: cititzenzero
Posted: January 16, 2007 - 10:24 AM PST
Last Reply: January 16, 2007 - 8:49 PM PST

author topic: Can GC complete with netflix and someday itunes? Yes, with some changes.
cititzenzero
post #1  on January 16, 2007 - 10:24 AM PST  
My prediction (and I'm sure many other's) when the Apple TV was announced is this:

ITMS will eventually offer a monthly subscription service to allow you to download and watch a certain number of movies/hours per month, streamed to your TV.

Pay per show is fine as long as the cost is very low, and the content is something you want to reuse. Like mp3s.

But movies/episodes you don't rewatch often enough to justify holding them on your hard drive for that long unless you're a media collector, not the normal American. The cost right now is too high for that content to compete with new business models.

Moving to a monthly limit on # of movies makes the most sense and I bet that's where Apple will go.

Looks like netflix is trying to beat them there:
http://techdirt.com/articles/20070116/002513.shtml

But where is greencine?

If netflix/other service offers 15+ movies a month, watchable as streams, and folks start getting apple TVs, media centers, or just watching all their content on their computers like I do anyway, how can a disk-in-the-mail or pay per download service win out?

The real coup will be if greencine can get there first. Alongside/Instead of pay-per-stream, why not get at least some of your collection as pay-per-month?

Greencine has content across the spectrum, so even if you don't have the same deals with paramount, or whoever apple is working with, the GC market is just as large or larger in other ways. If GC can take advantage of that and recognize where folks want to be in a year or two, that would be great.

Also, perhaps a deal with a different computer-to-tv box manufacturer (and there must be a lot popping up now) could help.
hamano
post #2  on January 16, 2007 - 12:01 PM PST  
I think Apple is committed to consumers "owning" the media they download from the iTunes store. Judging from the success of other major players who tried the membership model, where you have access to ALL the songs as long as you keep paying your membership fees, it seems that for music at least "ownership" is what consumers want. And DVDs have been a boon to the film industry because so many consumers buy them instead of just renting them. But Pay-per-view seems to work pretty well for video content.

The problem with "owning" stuff is that you have to pay for storage space. If you could see the clutter in my basement you'll understand. But the attraction of ownership is that the stuff is there whenever you want, immediately.

The cyberpunk model pointed to nobody "owning" anything... people could use the 'net to access any media or info they wanted immediately at any time, at a microscopic cost per download. Maybe pay-per-view/streaming is too democratic and fair to succeed. The American model of economy only works if the Joneses can buy and own more stuff than you.

Here's the flip side... I can keep up with the Joneses if I steal the same stuff that they have!

Personally, I think if pretty much everything costs 2 cents I'd be happy to pay it. We're still pretty far from that, whatever Netflix is trying next....
hamano
post #3  on January 16, 2007 - 6:47 PM PST  
I was reading about Amazon's unbox service and they have an interesting idea. You own whatever you buy from them. However, once you buy it a record of the purchase is kept at Amazon. So if you start running out of hard disk space, you can delete your purchase. But you still own the title as far as Amazon is concerned, and it appears in your "media vault" or something. You can download it again at a future date without paying for it again. Very interesting concept, that you own "it" but the location of "it" (the data) is flexible.
cititzenzero
post #4  on January 16, 2007 - 8:49 PM PST  
My problem with that is that I don't want to own my movies if it costs me more, unlike music. I don't re-watch the same movie enough times to make it worth it. For those few movies I do re-watch, I can buy and am willing to pay a premium and get them in whatever format, DVD or download. Buying movies will almost always be more expensive than being able to stream 15 or 30 of them in per month for a flat 20$, which is where I think things will go in a few years. Will GC be there?

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